Mathematical simulation of the spatial spread of COVID-19 waves in Russia

Abstract

Problems related to the COVID-19 epidemic are of great interest around the world. The present work examines the processes of COVID-19 epidemic waves in Russia. There are assumptions that the main source of new infection carriers is Moscow and that the process of the virus’ spread can be modeled by a kinetic equation. We develop our first results in. The model under consideration makes it possible to judge the nature of the spread of a modern pandemic for some countries. For the first wave of the pandemic, the processes in Italy, Chile and Russia have been studied. Now the attention is paid on the epidemic events in Russia for the second and third waves. The model has certain predictive capabilities, so the fourth wave is also studied.