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Title: Experience in Statistical Forecasting of the Atmospheric Temperature
Authors: Mukha, V. S.
Keywords: публикации ученых;Procrustes transformation;Procrustes distance;regression analysis;linear regression
Issue Date: 2015
Publisher: USA
Citation: Mukha, V. S. Experience in Statistical Forecasting of the Atmospheric Temperature / V. S. Mukha // Open Journal of Atmospheric and Climate Change. In Press. 2015. - 10 р.
Abstract: In this paper, the problem of forecasting of quantitative features of the weather (atmospheric temperature, atmospheric pressure, direction and velocity of wind, relative humidity of the air and some other) is considered. The problem is formulated as a task of linear extrapolating a vector random sequence. Such forecast with statistical estimations of parameters of predictive algorithm was named as linear statistical forecast. Empirical data about precision of linear statistical forecast of the atmospheric temperature in comparison with precision of the official numerical forecast and climatological forecast is given and analyzed. The experience of forecasting shows that statistical forecast is more accurate than climatological forecast and a little less accurate than numerical forecast.
Appears in Collections:Публикации в зарубежных изданиях

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